Cayman Islands' Hurricane Season 2026

Whilst the Cayman Islands are a relatively small target in a vast ocean, history shows that even a brush with a tropical storm, let alone a hurricane, can cause significant damage and lead to power outages lasting several days. Category 3–5 storms are far less common, but those who experienced the impacts of major hurricanes in the past will attest to how devastating they can be.

Being prepared and having a plan well in advance is key to weathering the storm. Read on for all the information you’ll need to get you and your family ready for the 2026 Hurricane Season, which begins on 1st June.

Summary of Cayman's 2025 Hurricane Season

October 28th, 2025

Update: Hurricane Melissa Strengthened as It Passed Near Jamaica
9:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Melissa did not pose a direct threat to the Cayman Islands; however, a marine watch remained in effect across all three islands through Wednesday 29 October, with dangerous seas and wave heights of 8–10 feet affecting surrounding waters.

At this time, the eye of Hurricane Melissa moved closer to Jamaica’s southern coast and was expected to make landfall within hours. Conditions across Jamaica deteriorated rapidly, and the storm was classified as extremely dangerous.

Residents in Jamaica were advised by authorities to remain indoors and in safe shelter until the storm had completely passed. The most severe conditions occurred as the eyewall moved ashore.

Data from U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirmed that Melissa had continued to intensify, with maximum sustained winds near 180 mph (290 km/h). The storm’s minimum central pressure fell to 896 mb (26.47 inches), indicating exceptional strength.

October 24th, 2025

Grand Cayman Out of the Cone, but Not Fully Out of Danger

At 11:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Melissa was centred near 15.7°N, 74.6°W, moving slowly east-southeast at approximately 2 mph. Forecasts indicated that the system had recently reorganised, with a gradual turn toward the northeast and then north expected before a westward drift later in the weekend.

At this stage, Melissa was producing winds of around 45 mph, and forecasters anticipated steady strengthening. Tropical-storm-force winds extended up to 140 miles from the centre.

The storm lingered over very warm Caribbean waters, providing favourable conditions for intensification. Although the exact track remained uncertain, Melissa was forecast to move near or just south of Jamaica early the following week, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall, flooding, and mudslides across Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti.

October 22nd, 2025

Forecast Uncertainty for Melissa

At this point, Tropical Storm Melissa posed no immediate threat to the Cayman Islands, although the overall threat level remained uncertain. Residents were encouraged to review hurricane preparedness plans and begin early preparations to protect life and property.

Forecast models suggested that Melissa would turn northwest toward waters southeast of Jamaica. Thereafter, guidance diverged, with some models indicating a definitive northward turn that would take the system out of the Caribbean near Hispaniola, while others suggested the storm could linger south of Jamaica for several days, strengthening over unusually warm waters before eventually turning north as a weather front moved off the east coast of the United States.

According to NOAA, Melissa was located near latitude 14.4°N and longitude 73.6°W, moving west-northwest at around 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph, with gradual strengthening expected and the possibility of hurricane status by the end of the week. The storm’s minimum central pressure was estimated at 1000 mb (29.53 inches). Cayman residents were advised to continue monitoring official updates closely.

October 21st, 2025

Melissa Forms in the Central Caribbean

Tropical Storm Melissa officially formed over the central Caribbean, becoming the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. At formation, the storm was located approximately 300 miles south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, producing winds of around 50 mph and moving west at approximately 14 mph.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for southern Haiti, while Jamaica was placed under a Tropical Storm Watch. At that time, there was no indication that the storm posed a direct threat to the Cayman Islands.

Forecasters expected Melissa to slow and begin curving northwest toward Haiti and Jamaica later in the week. However, weak steering currents created uncertainty, raising the possibility that the system could meander in the central Caribbean. The storm’s broad wind field extended more than 100 miles from its centre, and gradual strengthening was anticipated, with heavy rainfall posing a risk of flooding across affected areas.

October 17th, 2025

Atlantic Watch: Potential Development of ‘Future Melissa’

The National Hurricane Center monitored a tropical wave in the central Atlantic that showed potential to become the next named storm of the season. The system was located more than 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands and was moving west at 15–20 mph.

Although environmental conditions were not especially favourable at that time, slow development was possible as the system approached the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center assessed the chance of formation at 10 percent within 48 hours and 30 percent within seven days.

Even without full development, the wave was expected to bring periods of heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the Windward Islands before continuing westward into the Caribbean Sea.

Cayman Islands Seasonal Overview

Hurricane Melissa demonstrated the uncertainty and rapid intensification potential associated with late-season Caribbean storms. While the Cayman Islands avoided direct impacts and experienced no damage or injuries, deteriorating marine conditions required continued caution, and severe impacts occurred elsewhere in the region, particularly in Jamaica.

The 2025 hurricane season reinforced the importance of preparedness, early monitoring, and reliance on official guidance from the National Hurricane Center, NOAA, and Hazard Management Cayman Islands.

Previous 2025 Storm Names

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Know the signs, warnings and the meaning behind the flags.

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Hurricanes in Cayman 101

Hurricanes are measured using the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, but this scale is not a reliable indicator of overall impact. The category assigned to a hurricane reflects wind speed only and does not account for other critical factors such as the size of the wind field, the angle at which the storm approaches, or its forward speed. For this reason, it is essential to stay informed through official local information sources, including Radio Cayman, the Cayman Islands National Weather Service, Hazard Management Cayman Islands (HMCI), and other Government advisories whenever a hurricane is threatening.

These additional factors play a major role in determining storm surge, which is often the most significant threat to life and property during a hurricane. Grand Cayman and Little Cayman are predominantly low-lying islands, making them particularly vulnerable to storm surge flooding. In extreme, though rare, cases, hurricanes can cause sea levels to rise dramatically above normal levels. In addition to storm surge, hurricanes are usually accompanied by very large and powerful waves, which represent a separate and serious hazard.

Waves pose a real danger for coastal residents along open coastlines, as opposed to those living along canals. Most properties located directly on the coast are vulnerable to wave and surge impacts during a hurricane. However, many people are unaware that storm surge can also affect residents living well inland, particularly those in single-storey buildings located in low-lying areas. In a worst-case scenario involving a very large and powerful hurricane, even a ground floor situated 10 feet above sea level could be completely inundated by storm surge, potentially trapping occupants inside.

If the Cayman Islands experience a significant hurricane impact, residents should plan to be without electricity and water for a minimum of seven days, and potentially longer. After Hurricane Ivan in 2004, electricity took several weeks to be restored to most areas, and water supplies were disrupted for an extended period. During that time, banks, supermarkets, and gas stations were closed for at least a week. It is therefore vital to maintain an emergency supply of non-perishable food and water sufficient for at least one week per person. A general guideline is to store one gallon of water per person per day, kept in a cool, dark location. A portable radio with extra batteries is also essential, as radio often remains the most reliable source of information when internet, television, and mobile networks are unavailable.

Hurricane Ivan wreaked havoc on the Cayman Islands in 2004

The Cayman Islands Government maintains a dedicated department responsible for disaster preparedness, including hurricanes. Hazard Management Cayman Islands (HMCI) works with businesses, schools, community groups, and other Government departments to provide guidance on preparedness and response. HMCI’s website is regularly updated with information on named storms and other hazards, as well as advice for the public.

Preparation is key. Install hurricane shutters or ensure plywood is available to cover openings before hurricane season begins. Once wind breaches a building, internal pressure increases and the roof is far more likely to fail. It is too late to think about protecting personal belongings, securing important documents, filling vehicles with fuel, or purchasing supplies once a hurricane is imminent. It is also advisable to withdraw sufficient cash in advance, as ATMs may not function, banks may restrict withdrawals, and personal cheques are unlikely to be accepted after a storm. Prepare an evacuation “to-go bag” containing important documents stored in waterproof bags, along with clothing, food, water, medications, and other essentials for at least five days per person. Please refer to our checklist for a full list of recommended supplies and preparation steps.

Decide in advance where you will stay during a hurricane. If your home is elevated, well-constructed, and outside known flood and wave impact zones, it may be the safest option. Speak with neighbours about the vulnerability of your area to flooding or wave action, or contact Lands and Survey to obtain a topographical map of your property. If you determine that it is safe to remain at home, identify the most secure interior areas for shelter and plan possible escape routes.

If your home is not secure, then evacuate! Low-lying areas will flood, so take shelter on higher ground at your workplace or a friend’s house. Hurricane shelters are also an option; a complete list of locations can be found on the Hurricane Shelters page. Remember, ambulances will not be running during a hurricane, so if you have a health issue that may require medical attention it is best to go to an Emergency Medical Centre (EMC) shelter.

Eye on the Storm Stats 2025

Colorado State University, a leading authority on tropical weather systems and climate research, has utilised NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website to examine the paths of all named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes that have tracked within 50 miles of a given landmass from 1880 to 2020, including the Cayman Islands. Using this extensive historical data, they have analysed the probabilities of tropical cyclone impacts in those same locations in 2025 (versus an average year).

While this analysis should not be taken as a reason to forego your own preparations for hurricane season well in advance (remember, it only takes one!), it may help to put the frequency of storm hits into perspective.

You can view historic storm tracks here: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks.

You can also see the full list of statistics for the US and the Caribbean here: CSU Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities

The table below shows the chances of a storm impact in the Cayman Islands in 2025 versus the yearly average. An 'impact' is defined as meaning one or more storms passing within 50 miles of the Islands.

Chances of hurricane 'impacts' in the Cayman Islands in 2025

One last storm statistic for you...

The probability of at least one major hurricane (category 3-4-5) tracking through the Caribbean (10–20°N, 88–60°W) after 8th July 2025 is now at 53%. The average from 1880–2020 is 47%

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Medical Assistance During a Storm

Every district has a shelter that is specifically designated as an Emergency Medical Centre (EMC). If you have an existing medical condition, this may be the best place to seek shelter because there are medical personnel on hand. During high winds or flooding, however, ambulances will not respond until it is safe, which could potentially be more than 24 hours later. Make sure that your health insurance is up-to-date, so you are covered in the event of a medical emergency.

Visit the Hurricane Shelters page for a list of the designated emergency medical centres so that you can plan ahead of time the best course of action for you and your family. Also check out our Health Services page for more on medical services in the Cayman Islands.

Caring for the Vulnerable

Children & the Elderly

Young children and the elderly are vulnerable during a storm and, without support, can suffer great emotional distress. If you have an elderly friend or relative, consider offering your home as a safe-haven. If they are in a nursing home, be sure to confirm their emergency plans. If accompanied by an elderly person, keep in mind that they may take daily medication. Ensure that there is a sufficient supply and that it is stored in watertight containers. Young children may need special items, such as diapers, formula and bottles.

Medically Challenged & Disabled

If you have someone in your family with a serious medical condition or disability, consider leaving the Island with them prior to a serious hurricane hitting. If this is not possible, consult with a medical professional who is familiar with your loved ones medical history in order to receive tips on how to keep them as healthy as possible during a high stress situation. Also, if they are reliant on special medication, ensure you have an ample supply on hand.

Pets

There are only two pet-friendly shelters on Grand Cayman and there is limited capacity. Space will be allocated on a first-come, first-served basis. Refer to our Looking After Your Pets page for helpful information on how to protect your pets during a hurricane.